Time to get tough 刚毅此其时

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Barack Obama’s first year has been good, but not great—and things are going to get a lot harder
奥巴马就任第一年表现尚可，但并不出色，而且面临的挑战将棘手得多

HOW far away it seems, that bitingly cold, crystal-clear morning when almost 2m people filled the Mall from Capitol Hill to the Washington Monument to hear the new president talk of the victory of hope over fear, of unity of purpose over conflict and discord. Recalling the dark days of the war of independence, he pledged, like George Washington, that in the face of common danger Americans under his leadership would come forth to meet it. One year on, how well has he done?
无论多久远，人们都能记得那个早晨，寒气刺骨，天廓澄明。从国会山到华盛顿纪念碑之间，近二百万人聚集在国家广场，聆听新任总统演讲。他谈到以希望战胜恐惧，以万众一心克服纷争龃龉。忆及独立战争时的黑暗岁月，他与当年的华盛顿一样做出保证：在共同的危险面前，他将带领美国人民向前迎战。时已一年，他做得如何？
Not too badly, by our reckoning (see article). In his first 12 months in office Mr Obama has overseen the stabilising of the economy, is on the point of bringing affordable health care to virtually every American citizen, has ended the era of torture, is robustly prosecuting the war in Afghanistan while gradually disengaging from Iraq; and perhaps more precious than any of these, he has cleared away much of the cloud of hatred and fear through which so much of the world saw the United States during George Bush’s presidency.
在我们看来（见有关文章），还算不错。上任第一年，奥巴马主导了经济企稳；正推动可负担得起的医疗改革，这实际上将惠及每位美国公民；终结了酷刑时代（注1）；逐步从伊拉克撤军，同时积极推进阿富汗战争；最难能可贵的是，在布什任内，多少世人对美国充满怨怼与疑惧，他几乎已驱散这片乌云。
More generally, Mr Obama has run a competent, disciplined yet heterodox administration, with few of the snafus that characterised Bill Clinton’s first year. Just as important have been the roads not taken. Mr Obama has resisted the temptation to give in to the populists in his own party and saddle Wall Street with regulations that would choke it. He has eschewed punitive taxation on the entrepreneurs who animate the economy; and he has even, with the notable exception of a boneheaded tariff on cheap Chinese tyres, turned a deaf ear to the siren-song of the protectionists. In short, what’s not to like?
从更广意义上看，奥巴马的政府班子虽有些另类，但力堪其任、纪律严明，少见克林顿上台第一年的混乱局面。同样重要的是，他有所不为。奥巴马顶住压力，不向民主党内的民粹派让步，未向华尔街施加足以遏其发展的规章措施；他未向那些能激活经济的企业家征收惩罚性税款；而且，除对中国廉价轮胎拙劣地加征关税这一明显例外，他对保护主义者的聒噪置之不理。简言之，还有什么不好么？
Only one thing, really; but it is a big one, and it is the reason why most of the achievements listed above must be qualified. Mr Obama has too often remained above the fray, too anxious to be liked, and too ready to do the popular thing now and leave the awkward stuff till later. Far from living up to the bracing rhetoric of his inaugural, he has not been tough enough. In this second year of his presidency, to quote his formerly favourite preacher, his chickens will come home to roost.
实际上，只有一点。但这非常重要，而且就因为这点，上述绝大多数成绩便有了瑕疵。奥巴马太过超脱于争执之外，太过急于被认可，太过乐于做受欢迎之事，而将难点留待以后解决。他不够刚毅，就职演说中令人鼓舞的言辞远未兑现。借用奥巴马曾最信服的宗教导师的话来说，他在任期第二年将“自受其害”。（注2）
It could have been so much better
本应好得多
At home Mr Obama’s dangerous diffidence explains why the health bill that now seems likely to pass, while on balance a good thing rather than a bad one, is still a big disappointment. Yes, it makes provision for tens of millions of Americans who lack insurance, and many more who fear being cast into that boat should they lose their jobs. But it is expensive, and it takes only hesitant steps in the crucial direction of cost control. Constantly rising health-care charges threaten the entire federal government with bankruptcy. So it is tragic that the most comprehensive health reform in generations does so little to tackle this problem. Yet that, alas, is exactly what you would expect to happen if a president leaves the details to be written by Democrats in Congress, barely reaches out to the admittedly obstructive Republicans on issues such as tort reform, and remains magisterially aloof from much of the process.
在国内，奥巴马踌躇不决危害甚大。正因如此，虽医改议案总的来看利大于弊，有望通过，但其内容仍令人十分失望。在美国，数千万人没有医保，另外很多人担心一旦失业就会加入这一大军。该医改方案的确为这些人提供了保障，但耗资甚巨，而且在至为关键的未来开支控制上进退犹疑。不断攀升的医疗费用使整个联邦政府有破产之虞，因此，这个几代人以来最为全面的医改方案对该问题几无所涉，实在堪忧。但是，若一个总统将医改细节交由民主党议员制订，在侵权法改革等方面又不与显然持反对态度的共和党人协商，而且大多数情况下傲然游离于整个过程之外，哦，那结果也就只能如此了。
Mr Obama’s failure to take on the spend-alls in his own party will cost him politically. His ratings are falling, and in November’s mid-term elections he looks likely, at the very least, to lose his supermajority in the Senate. Some critics argue that instead of focusing on health, he should have concentrated on jobs (the unemployment rate is two points higher than the 8% peak he predicted). That seems unfair: health care was the core part of his campaign and something America had to tackle. What has spooked the voters is the sheer cost of the scheme—and the idea that Mr Obama is unable to tackle the deficit.
奥巴马未能控制民主党内肆意浪费预算者，这将令其付出政治代价。他的支持率正在下降，在今年11月的中期选举中，看起来极有可能至少会失去在参院的绝对多数。有些批评者认为，他不应专注于医改，而应集中精力解决失业问题（奥巴马曾预测失业率最高达到8%，但现在失业率已超过10%）。这种批评似不够公允：医改是奥巴马竞选时的核心议题，也是美国必须解决的问题。吓倒选民的是医改方案的巨大投入、以及奥巴马没有能力解决相关预算赤字的想法。
They are right to be worried. The national debt is set to reach a market-rattling $12 trillion by 2015, more than double what it was when Mr Obama took over. It made sense for the government to pump money into the economy in 2009; but this year Mr Obama must show how he intends to deal with the debt. So far, he has not offered even an outline of how he intends to do so. Because he failed to be harsh with congressional Democrats (whose popularity ratings, incidentally, were a fraction of his), he will now have to do more with Republicans.
选民们感到忧虑也情有可缘。到2015年，美国国债肯定会达到令市场不安的12万亿美元，这一数字是奥巴马就任时的两倍还多。2009年，政府为挽救经济而注资合情合理，但奥巴马今年必须表明，他准备如何解决有关债务问题。迄今为止，他甚至尚未提出拟如何解决问题的框架。因为他对民主党议员（顺便提一下，他们的支持率也部分上是奥的支持率）不够强硬，现在就不得不对共和党人强硬。
Not by carrots alone
不能只用胡萝卜
This same reluctance to get tough, or even mildly sweaty, is felt in America’s dealings with other nations. His long-drawn-out decision on Afghanistan mirrored that on health care. Yes, by sending more troops, he did more-or-less the right thing eventually. But it seemed as if the number of troops was determined by opinion polls, rather than the mission in hand. And the protracted dithering was damaging to morale.
奥巴马这种不愿强硬、甚至不愿稍显粗鲁的态度，也体现在美国对外交往中。他在阿富汗增兵问题上迁延日久才做出决定，与医改问题差堪比拟。不错，他最终做出向阿增兵的决定；决定基本正确，但增兵数量似由民调、而非现实任务确定。他对该问题长期犹豫不定也影响了士气。更多信息请访问：http://www.24en.com/
Mr Obama has been on a goodwill tour of the world, proffering the open hand rather than the fist. Yet he has nothing much to show for it, other than a series of slaps in the face. Israel dismissed his settlement freeze. Going to China with human rights far down the agenda and the Dalai Lama royally snubbed seems to have done Mr Obama no good at all, judging by the fiasco that was the climate-change summit in Copenhagen. Co-operation between the “G2” was supposed to help fulfil Mr Obama’s grandiose promise that his presidency would be “the moment when…our planet began to heal”. Hitting the reset button on relations with Russia has produced nothing more than a click. Offering engagement with the Iranians was worth a go, but has produced nothing yet. This generosity to America’s enemies also sits ill with a more brusque approach to staunch allies, such as Japan (see article), Britain and several east European countries.
奥巴马带着善意出访他国，向外界张开双手而非攥紧拳头。但除挨了几记耳光之外，并无他物可展示其善意。他要求以色列停止修建定居点，遭到拒绝。他访问中国时，将人权问题置于议题最后并在很大程度上忽略了达赖问题，但从美国在哥本哈根气候峰会上遭受的惨败看，他似乎未获丝毫回报。（与此形成对照的是，）他誓言，在其任期内，“将开始…治愈我们星球所受的创伤”，他本以为（中美）“两国集团”间的合作将助其实现这一宏大承诺。他重启与俄罗斯关系，结果仅听到按钮的一声响而已。（注3）他提出与伊朗接触值得一试，但迄无成果。对美国敌人的这些做法称得上慷慨，但与其对日本（见有关文章）、英国与几个东欧国家等美国坚定盟友的草率无礼形成鲜明对比。
Some worry that Mr Obama will always be a community organiser, never a commander-in-chief. In fact he did not get to the White House by merely being nice, but by being bold and often confronting awkward subjects head-on. It is not too late for him to toughen up. Firm talk about the budget in his state-of-the-union message would help. Now that the administration’s priority has shifted from engaging Iran to imposing sanctions, Mr Obama may be able to apply the stick and not the carrot. He is due to see the Dalai Lama. He might even, if he can relearn the virtues of bipartisan dealmaking, bully a climate-change bill through Congress. But this will all be a lot more difficult than anything he did in his first year.
有些人担心，奥巴马一直摆脱不了社区组织者的身份，永远成不了统帅。实际上，他入主白宫不仅凭为人亲善，还靠勇气、以及常常直面艰险勇往直前。对奥巴马而言，强势起来尚为时不晚。在今年的国情咨文中以更坚定的言辞谈及预算将有助益。既然政府的首要目标已从接触伊朗转为施加制裁，也许奥巴马能挥舞起大棒而非胡萝卜。他理应会见达赖喇嘛。如果能重学两党妥协达成协议的好传统，他甚至可以推动在国会通过气候变化法案。但是，所有这些都将比他上任头一年所做的工作困难得多。
注1：估计指关闭关塔那摩基地
注2：此处的导师应指与奥巴马关系亲密的黑人牧师赖特。九一一事件后，赖特曾于2001年9月16日在布道时表示，美国对广岛与长崎投原子弹的伤害超过世贸中心与五角大楼被袭，美国支持对巴勒斯坦和南非黑人的国家恐怖主义，如今自作自受。
注3：美俄两国外长煞有其事地弄了个标有重启字样的大模型。

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